By Albert Nyberg, World Bank
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Extra resources for At China's table: food security options, Volume 113
5Source: World Bank data and staff estimates. Page 3 water-abundant south, supplies would be suffcient to expand rice production. consequently, rice supplies will be more than adequate to meet direct consumption needs, and rice will be used incresingly as a feed grainprimarily the hybrid rice varities that are considered inferior as a food grain. Based on these assumption, domestic grain production in 2020 is estimated at 667 million tons under the mostly likely scenario. The supply-demand balance indicates wheat and coarse grain deficits requiring imports of 30 million tons of wheat for food and 30 million tons of coarse grain for feed and industrail uses.
For pork, the major meat component, 70 percent is produced under backyard conditions using very little grain or manufactured feeds. But unless much of the incremental production comes from more commercial operations, the animal numbers will be extraordinarily high. The level of aggregation in the model (as in all general equilibrium models) hides the details of meat consumption (pork, poultry, other), but future consumption growth will likely be greater in more feed-efficient poultry. The model estimated feed grain needs using a single conversion ratio.
Some instability comes from the many years of rationing, when consumption was barely influenced by economic factors. But recent estimates using sophisticated multiple equation models and data for 199394, when rationing was suspended, have been equally unstable. 4 Residential location (rural, small town, large city) and age are important determinants, and they will become more important as the Chinese population urbanizes and ages. 5 Long-term food consumption projections are difficult because of unstable elasticity coefficients and because data on base consumption levels vary.
At China's table: food security options, Volume 113 by Albert Nyberg, World Bank