By Christopher T. Saunders (eds.)
ISBN-10: 1349057584
ISBN-13: 9781349057580
ISBN-10: 1349057606
ISBN-13: 9781349057603
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Additional resources for East and West in the Energy Squeeze: Prospects for Cooperation
Example text
It is based on scenarios about the overall development of the economy, whose economic consequences for the period under observation have been calculated for each case in a one-sector model. The model shows the employment of material resources, labour and productive capital, as well as the requirements for foreign trade and domestic consumption. Figure 1 Forecast and planning calculations of economic growth, energy and raw material consumption Growth strategies: Ferrous metals Nonferrous metals Timber/cellulose/paper Fibres Silicates/glass Food Carbon Liquid fuels Solid fuels Gas Electricity Heat Including: Primary domestic availabilities, secondary domestic availabilities, import/export, conversion, application 51 The alternatives derived from this economic model provide starting points for the formulation and calculation of structural variations in economic development, using a simple structural (input-output) model of the economy.
In the next 15 to 20 years, major changes are predicted in the productive capacity and structure of the economy. In the GDR, with maintenance of the current growth rate, the national income will double in about 14 years, industrial production in 12 to 13 years, exports in eight to ten years, productive capital in 12 years, and primary energy consumption in 30 years. The changes in the population's consumption pattern mentioned above, the necessary adjustment of the export pattern in response to changing external market conditions, and the necessary priority development of the "productivity producing" branches of the economy will certainly be associated with significant structural changes in the economy, affecting final as well as earlier stages of production.
Appropriate forecasts and planning techniques have been developed and are regularly used for national calculations, as well as for economic groupings (regions) and the international economy as a whole. The techniques for analysis and prediction of the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption used internationally (and frequently applied in combination) fall into the following groups: forecasts based on the statistically proven correlations between energy consumption and parameters for the entire economy (national income, national product) see Appendix 1; - application of current indicators of per capita energy consumption figures for the most industrially developed countries used in predictions for other parts of the world or for the entire world economy; - derivation of future energy demand from the analysis and forecasting of structural changes in the national economy (sectoral method); selective analysis and forecasting of the development of energy-intensive processes of production; analysis and prediction of growth and structural changes in primary energy production/supply, the stages of energy processing, and the supply of energy inputs for consumption; analysis and prediction of world trade systems which affect energy.
East and West in the Energy Squeeze: Prospects for Cooperation by Christopher T. Saunders (eds.)
by Steven
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