By Josef Gruber (auth.), Prof. Dr. Josef Gruber Ph.D. (eds.)
ISBN-10: 3540115544
ISBN-13: 9783540115540
ISBN-10: 3642464645
ISBN-13: 9783642464645
Read or Download Econometric Decision Models: Proceedings of a Conference Held at the University of Hagen, West Germany, June 19–20, 1981 PDF
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Additional resources for Econometric Decision Models: Proceedings of a Conference Held at the University of Hagen, West Germany, June 19–20, 1981
Example text
2 10 0,1 0,1 PCPIW POTAUS 10 10 7 UQ 10 7 10 10 OKS 1 1 IBST62IW 1 1 TQIW 1 1 TSVIW 1 1 Run 2: See run I: exception: gZ42 100. Run 3: See run I: exception: gZ22 100. 33 5. Optimal trajectories and evaluation of results The results of the control calculations are presented in the following three comparisons: Simulation of actual development and run 1 The optimal policy results in a lower rate of unemployment, a higher rate of capacity utilization and a higher growth rate of real GNP. These positive effects are paid by a higher rate of inflation.
1 ...... 76,1 75. _ , ...... .... ................ .... " ~ 76,2 ...... , . "", " 5 -1 75,4 75,3 ....... 76,1 POTAUS ",,-----. --. ". , .. ----' .... ::--.................... '. ~ " , . , 5 " ,, '. 75,3 75,4 76,1 76,2 76,2 UQ 1 " / /' ---. "..... --_. run 2 • - -. -. _. 36 4,0 30 ....... ......... '. ~-- \ /' \ \,/' , -~. _--- -. - "" . ,. ;';;, .. 75,3 - / ......... 75,4'/ 16-,"'. / .. " Simulation: run 1 run 2 . ____ . _ .. _. -. /. / ----. ,. - . - .. - -- . - 76,1 76,2 UQ 1 .. - ' - ' .
These data can be considered as 'quasi-elections'. From these data we construct a time series of yearly data, from which we estimate the weights of the economic variables in our voting function. We assume, as Nordhaus (1975) and MacRae (1977) did, that the unemployment rate (U) and the rate of inflation (IR) are the politically (most) relevant variables. e. the election period extends from t = 1 to t = T. The government's vote share at time T, GV T, is assumed to be a linear function of its vote share in the previous election, GV O' and a measure of economic performance during the election period, MT, 58 (1 ) where ~ is the (constant, non zero) discount rate of voters.
Econometric Decision Models: Proceedings of a Conference Held at the University of Hagen, West Germany, June 19–20, 1981 by Josef Gruber (auth.), Prof. Dr. Josef Gruber Ph.D. (eds.)
by Anthony
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